Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:48:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EC 0xecc0…4800 sports 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$208 (-7%) realized −$208 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate80%78W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$19
14 days−$220
30 days−$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$35
other 21% −$186
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -0.3% -9.8% 86% 12% -10.3%
≤30d 98 -1.7% -11.0% 80% 15% -16.5%
≤90d 98 -1.7% -11.0% 80% 15% -16.5%
all 98 -1.7% -11.0% 80% 15% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 15% -16.5%
10% -19.5% 5% -24.5%
15% -27.3% 1% -31.8%
20% -34.4% 1% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$19 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$208
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses78 / 20
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)98 / 100
History coverage52d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Under 95¢ 96¢ $89 $89 +$0 (+0%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 Under 95¢ 95¢ $86 $86 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $86 +$3 +4%
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $86 +$4 +4%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $180 +$12 +7%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $100 −$55 -55%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $116 +$4 +3%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $100 +$6 +6%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $10 $0 +5%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -9%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $84 +$3 +3%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $125 +$5 +4%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $30 +$1 +4%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $35 +$3 +10%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $30 +$1 +4%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $40 +$2 +4%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $30 +$2 +8%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $30 −$13 -42%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $30 +$2 +6%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $50 +$1 +3%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 +$1 +2%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 +$1 +4%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $15 +$4 +24%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $15 +$2 +10%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $45 +$2 +3%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $45 +$2 +4%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $15 +$2 +11%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $25 +$1 +4%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $45 +$5 +12%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $20 +$2 +8%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $20 +$4 +20%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 $0 +2%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $4 $0 +5%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $35 +$1 +4%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $15 +$1 +6%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $30 +$2 +6%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 23 $7 +$1 +9%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $35 +$2 +6%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $11 +$2 +17%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $15 −$4 -25%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 −$1 -3%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $15 +$1 +6%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $20 +$1 +5%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +24%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $14 +$1 +4%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $20 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $89 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $86 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 96¢ $86 19h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 96¢ $86 19h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 84¢ $44 21h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 2.5 SELL Under 40¢ $45 21h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $136 22h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $100 22h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $11 22h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 95¢ $10 24h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $9 24h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $116 24h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 94¢ $100 24h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $84 42h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 96¢ $125 42h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $30 45h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 2.5 SELL Under 53¢ $17 45h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 96¢ $30 45h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 BUY Under 92¢ $15 46h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $15 46h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Under 90¢ $15 46h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 BUY Under 90¢ $20 46h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $40 46h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $30 46h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $30 46h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $30 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $50 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $30 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $51 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.95 · official $174.95 (match) · 218 history records