Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:29:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EC 0xecc5…5fde sports 210 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,662 (+10%) realized +$9,061 · open −$1,399
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%58W / 108L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$367per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$3,746now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9,381
7 days+$7,728
14 days+$8,017
30 days+$8,112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$8,641
world 8% −$1,558
sports 4% −$420
politics 3% −$17
finance 1% +$116
crypto 0% −$35
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -18.4% -26.2% 24% 15% +1.2%
≤30d 148 +11.9% +1.3% 34% 32% +1.0%
≤90d 166 +9.9% -0.5% 35% 33% +1.0%
all 166 +9.9% -0.5% 35% 33% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 33% +1.0%
10% -10.1% 28% -8.7%
15% -18.8% 25% -17.5%
20% -26.7% 22% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +29% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$281 vs −$77 · ×3.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$3,746
Realized+$9,061
Unrealized−$1,399
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses58 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions44
Markets (closed)166 / 210
History coverage32d
Avg bet$367
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 65¢ 46¢ $1,001 $701 −$300 (-30%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 84¢ $625 $681 +$56 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 80¢ 99¢ $320 $396 +$76 (+24%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 62¢ 17¢ $1,125 $298 −$827 (-74%)
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $198 $290 +$91 (+46%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 92¢ $150 $165 +$15 (+10%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $100 $159 +$59 (+59%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 70¢ 98¢ $98 $138 +$40 (+41%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Yes 40¢ 16¢ $320 $124 −$196 (-61%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 17¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 21¢ 6¢ $256 $72 −$184 (-72%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 28¢ 15¢ $123 $68 −$55 (-45%)
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? Yes 22¢ 30¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+36%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $49 $54 +$5 (+10%)
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $44 $52 +$9 (+20%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $61 $41 −$20 (-32%)
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-35%)
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? Yes 22¢ 13¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-40%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $36 $28 −$8 (-22%)
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Will Toulouse win the 2026 Top 14 Final? Yes 20¢ 47¢ $10 $24 +$14 (+135%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? Yes 39¢ 16¢ $47 $19 −$28 (-59%)
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $29,202 +$9,640 +33%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $159 −$155 -98%
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? Jun 16 $152 +$8 +5%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4,543 −$4,500 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$43 +84%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$14 +433%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Jun 14 $2 +$30 +1314%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $28,977 +$4,741 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by May 31? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Aoyama/Liang vs Danilina/Krunic Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by May 31? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 12 $172 −$172 -100%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 12 $151 −$151 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 11 $40 +$1 +2%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $502 +$73 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $831 +$280 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5PM ET Jun 06 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4PM ET Jun 06 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$6 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 06 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 25m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $100 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 11h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 11h
Macron out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 15h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $49 23h
Macron out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $10,179 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $135 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $18,590 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $9,938 31h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $159 35h
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $160 43h
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 25¢ $48 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $29,202 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $4,543 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $94 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 2d
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? BUY No 0¢ $4 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $79 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $141 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,746.47 · official $3,738.32 (match) · 532 history records