Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:06:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EC 0xecc5…6e99 sports 1472 markets active 0h ago coverage 224d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 223d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$457 (-2%) realized −$455 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%772W / 692L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$244
other 33% −$79
crypto 9% +$33
world 9% −$53
politics 5% +$14
tech 3% −$37
economics 2% +$16
culture 1% −$7
weather 1% −$5
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -1.2% -10.6% 59% 59% -10.4%
≤30d 99 +7.3% -3.0% 60% 60% -3.1%
≤90d 343 -6.1% -15.1% 53% 51% -11.3%
all 1464 -2.4% -11.7% 53% 42% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 42% -11.3%
10% -20.2% 34% -19.8%
15% -27.9% 26% -27.5%
20% -35.0% 19% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$455
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses772 / 692
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1464 / 1472
History coverage224d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1464 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Over 38¢ 30¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-20%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 80¢ 87¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 21 $25 −$7 -29%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $13 −$11 -89%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 +$6 +48%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 21 $13 +$7 +52%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 +$3 +57%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $8 −$7 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 −$2 -7%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $13 +$6 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $70 −$23 -32%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $8 +$5 +64%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 +$11 +70%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $8 −$7 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 +$9 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $13 +$8 +62%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $8 +$5 +67%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $8 −$7 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +101%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $18 +$5 +26%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $28 +$8 +27%
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 19 $8 +$2 +29%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $13 +$5 +42%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $13 +$10 +76%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 +$7 +67%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $13 −$12 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -98%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$9 +57%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 18 $8 +$5 +62%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 +$20 +262%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 +$3 +65%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $25 +$6 +23%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $13 +$9 +73%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$10 +40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $13 +$4 +31%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 +$11 +146%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $15 +$5 +34%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$12 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 58¢ $3 24m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners SELL Over 45¢ $18 24m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 5¢ $1 28m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 66¢ $7 29m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 67¢ $14 29m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $25 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $35 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $8 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 73¢ $13 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $13 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY 65¢ $13 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $5 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $25 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $8 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $25 18h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 65¢ $10 18h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 18h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $19 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $25 19h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $12 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $26 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $13 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $22 20h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $8 21h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $8 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $13 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $15 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $25 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $70 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.06 · official $24.65 · 3500 history records