Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:59:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EC
0xecc6…55bf
weather · 941 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$201 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$173 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$157
Realized+$173
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses827 / 90
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions24
Markets (closed)917 / 941
History coverage74d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 24 History 917 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$19
14 days+$32
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 89¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? No 87¢ 94¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 77¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 89¢ 91¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? No 82¢ 81¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 85¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? No 82¢ 81¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 80¢ 68¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? No 82¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? No 95¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 92¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? No 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? No 97¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? No 88¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? No 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? No 95¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 16? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 16? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 15? No 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 97¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? No 88¢ 87¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? No 89¢ 4¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 6? No 81¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $16 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? Jun 14 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$4 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$4 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 11? Jun 12 $12 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $16 +$3 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $16 +$4 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 10? Jun 10 $16 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $32 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 95% +$138
sports 5% +$37
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $5 14m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $5 40m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $5 40m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 40m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $5 40m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $5 40m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 40m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $5 40m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $5 40m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 99¢ $5 40m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 83¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +2.3% -7.4% 94% 29% -7.7%
≤30d 304 +2.9% -6.9% 95% 28% -7.3%
≤90d 917 +2.2% -7.5% 90% 23% -7.5%
all 917 +2.2% -7.5% 90% 23% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 23% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 9% -16.3%
15% -24.5% 4% -24.4%
20% -31.9% 4% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.28 · official $157.29 (match) · 2007 history records