Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:09:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecc9…25d1 crypto 1000 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$398 (-7%) realized −$398 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate24%194W / 613L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day75.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$794
7 days−$757
14 days−$694
30 days−$696
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$170
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 285 -43.0% -48.4% 14% 14% -80.7%
≤30d 539 -26.3% -33.3% 13% 13% -70.5%
≤90d 807 -20.7% -28.3% 24% 22% -23.7%
all 807 -20.7% -28.3% 24% 22% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.3% 22% -23.7%
10% ← realistic here -35.1% 17% -31.0%
15% -41.4% 15% -37.7%
20% -47.2% 13% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$398
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses194 / 613
Open positions0
Markets (closed)807 / 1000
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day75.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 807 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on March 10? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 1 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 18? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 18? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records