Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:53:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecc9…cb12 sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$81 (-18%) realized −$80 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$25
14 days−$87
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-46.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -29.6% -36.3% 33% 33% -17.4%
≤30d 18 -41.4% -46.9% 28% 28% -32.2%
≤90d 18 -41.4% -46.9% 28% 28% -32.2%
all 18 -41.4% -46.9% 28% 28% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.9% 28% -32.2%
10% -52.0% 28% -38.7%
15% -56.7% 28% -44.6%
20% -60.9% 28% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$17 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$80
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage8d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 52¢ 52¢ $61 $61 −$1 (-1%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 61¢ 60¢ $42 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $44 +$48 +109%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $25 +$43 +172%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $11 +$12 +109%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $14 +$15 +109%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $31 +$17 +55%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 61¢ $42 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $62 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 47¢ $18 25h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $19 28h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 45¢ $19 29h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $25 29h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $11 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ $15 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $14 3d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 45¢ $8 4d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 45¢ $9 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 55¢ $36 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $10 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 47¢ $11 6d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 47¢ $14 6d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 40¢ $11 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $9 6d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $10 7d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 64¢ $31 7d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $15 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 48¢ $20 8d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 46¢ $20 8d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 43¢ $22 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.91 · official $101.91 (match) · 41 history records