Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xeccb…991d other 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,819 (-1%) realized −$1,820 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate16%25W / 129L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,330per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$845now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$12
14 days−$134
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$14
politics 33% −$80
sports 18% −$1,752
world 3% −$9
economics 1% −$2
tech 1% −$3
culture 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$3
finance 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 36 -7.0% -15.8% 8% 3% -10.0%
≤90d 121 -13.8% -22.0% 7% 2% -10.9%
all 154 -2.4% -11.7% 16% 10% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 10% -10.3%
10% -20.1% 10% -18.9%
15% -27.8% 9% -26.7%
20% -34.9% 6% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,094) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$22 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$845
Realized−$1,820
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses25 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)154 / 156
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,330
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $433 $435 +$1 (+0%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $410 $410 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $662 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,215 −$4 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $4,464 −$5 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,195 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,201 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,200 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $3,764 −$5 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,204 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $1,057 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,149 −$3 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,218 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $318 +$1 +0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,273 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $538 +$1 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $399 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $391 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,871 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $780 −$1 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 25 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,564 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $560 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $768 −$1 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $60 +$31 +52%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $829 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $5,141 −$6 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $1,324 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $6,526 −$7 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,266 −$2 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,349 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,291 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $2,671 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,281 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $1,258 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $4,006 −$5 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $3,674 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $410 50m
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $661 25h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $662 26h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $758 47h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $759 2d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $762 2d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $763 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $760 3d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $761 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $463 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $463 3d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $433 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,193 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,195 7d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,200 7d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,201 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,075 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,076 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,198 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,200 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,200 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,202 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,202 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,204 9d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,055 10d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,057 10d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $67 12d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $906 14d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $907 14d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 39¢ $40 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $844.65 · official $844.65 (match) · 499 history records