Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:52:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EC 0xeccb…9a4c politics 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$412now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 242d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 80% $0
economics 10% $0
other 7% −$6
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 3 -12.8% -21.1% 0% 0% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 0% -15.9%
10% -28.6% 0% -23.9%
15% -35.5% 0% -31.3%
20% -41.9% 0% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$412
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage242d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $209 $208 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $189 $189 −$0 (-0%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 08 $15 −$6 -38%
USDT depeg in 2025? Nov 20 $19 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 22 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 34m
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 1h
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 54¢ $9 164d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 96¢ $15 186d
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 87¢ $15 213d
USDT depeg in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $19 213d
USDT depeg in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $19 227d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $49 242d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $49 242d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $412.31 · official $412.31 (match) · 9 history records