Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:46:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EC 0xecce…69d8 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,565 (+144%) realized +$1,562 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +52% what you keep after slip
Net edge+52%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$365
7 days−$345
14 days−$345
30 days+$1,546
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$304
politics 33% +$1,891
sports 4% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+51.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -46.5% -51.6% 25% 25% -71.6%
≤30d 5 +67.5% +51.6% 40% 40% +152.5%
≤90d 5 +67.5% +51.6% 40% 40% +152.5%
all 5 +67.5% +51.6% 40% 40% +152.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +51.6% 40% +152.5%
10% +37.1% 20% +128.3%
15% +23.8% 20% +106.2%
20% +11.7% 20% +86.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +179% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +68% · $-wt +179% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$956 vs −$122 · ×7.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.24 per $1 lost it wins $5.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized+$1,562
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage29d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $90 $96 +$6 (+7%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $48 $46 −$2 (-4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $320 −$320 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $41 −$38 -93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $47 −$7 -15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $94 +$20 +21%
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Co Jun 01 $361 +$1,891 +524%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $30 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $23 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $25 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 3h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 9h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $41 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 25¢ $40 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $47 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $206 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $26 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $88 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $92 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $94 4d
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Co BUY Yes 21¢ $17 23d
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Co BUY Yes 21¢ $61 23d
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Co BUY Yes 21¢ $7 23d
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Co BUY Yes 18¢ $69 29d
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Co BUY Yes 16¢ $70 29d
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Co BUY Yes 12¢ $138 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.91 · official $220.91 (match) · 29 history records