Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:13:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xeccf…beeb sports 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$615 (+16%) realized +$615 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%30W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$9
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$682
politics 25% −$7
sports 7% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -18.8% -26.6% 38% 38% -35.6%
≤30d 30 +10.9% +0.3% 57% 57% -1.0%
≤90d 59 -8.8% -17.5% 46% 46% -14.6%
all 65 -8.0% -16.8% 46% 46% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 46% +5.0%
10% -24.7% 46% -5.0%
15% -32.0% 45% -14.2%
20% -38.7% 37% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$32 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$615
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses30 / 35
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage219d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2 +$4 +150%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $4 −$3 -98%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 +$3 +117%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 09 $3 +$3 +82%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 04 $4 −$4 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 03 $3 +$3 +119%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 02 $4 +$2 +49%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 May 30 $4 +$2 +55%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 May 30 $3 +$2 +49%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 May 28 $1 +$4 +300%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 27 $3 +$2 +70%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 May 26 $4 +$1 +38%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 24 $3 −$3 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 May 23 $2 +$3 +109%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 21 $4 +$2 +46%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5 May 21 $2 +$4 +158%
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 20 $3 +$2 +62%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5 May 20 $4 +$1 +30%
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) May 20 $3 +$2 +59%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5 May 20 $3 +$3 +134%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 7.5 May 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $945 −$7 -1%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5 May 11 $3 +$2 +45%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 11 $3 +$3 +122%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 206.5 May 11 $3 +$4 +113%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5 May 11 $4 +$3 +85%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 11 $4 +$3 +90%
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5 May 11 $4 +$4 +119%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 210.5 May 11 $4 +$4 +83%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5 May 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) May 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 210.5 Apr 29 $4 −$4 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 213.5 Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5 Apr 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 214.5 Apr 24 $3 −$3 -99%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 215.5 Apr 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5 Apr 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Avalanche vs. Flames: O/U 6.5 Apr 22 $7 +$6 +89%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5 Apr 22 $12 +$12 +105%
Spread: Bucks (-1.5) Apr 22 $13 +$13 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 43¢ $3 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 40¢ $2 22h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 47¢ $4 47h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 46¢ $0 2d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 46¢ $2 2d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 46¢ $1 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 57¢ $3 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 7d
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) BUY Knicks 45¢ $1 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 56¢ $4 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Over 42¢ $0 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 11d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 45¢ $3 12d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 67¢ $2 13d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 67¢ $2 13d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 25¢ $1 14d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 25¢ $0 14d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 64¢ $4 15d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 67¢ $3 16d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 27¢ $1 17d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 25¢ $1 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 19d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 72¢ $4 20d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Thunder 69¢ $3 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.56 · official $2.56 (match) · 159 history records