Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:43:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EC 0xecd5…4738 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$9 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$579now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$16
politics 28% −$33
sports 13% +$10
economics 11% $0
world 5% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -10.6% -19.1% 0% 0% -17.8%
≤30d 5 -5.1% -14.1% 0% 0% -12.8%
≤90d 5 -5.1% -14.1% 0% 0% -12.8%
all 8 -2.3% -11.6% 25% 12% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 12% -11.3%
10% -20.1% 0% -19.8%
15% -27.8% 0% -27.5%
20% -34.9% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$579
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)8 / 15
History coverage168d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 62¢ 62¢ $250 $248 −$1 (-1%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 73¢ 86¢ $146 $173 +$27 (+18%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $74 $75 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 84¢ 81¢ $50 $49 −$2 (-3%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 39¢ 14¢ $39 $14 −$26 (-65%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-16%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $13 $10 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $139 −$28 -20%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $188 −$1 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $169 −$5 -3%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $301 −$3 -1%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 12 $70 +$11 +16%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Mar 12 $186 +$14 +8%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 09 $84 −$14 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 20¢ $47 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 20¢ $54 1h
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 81¢ $177 3h
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 81¢ $9 11h
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 84¢ $51 46h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $13 3d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 62¢ $253 3d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 85¢ $169 3d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 83¢ $164 3d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 3d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 91¢ $182 24d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 73¢ $294 27d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $74 28d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $39 28d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 25¢ $139 28d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $265 28d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $164 28d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $298 28d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 81¢ $188 38d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $301 38d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $266 79d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $72 79d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $2 101d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $167 101d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 103d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 103d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 103d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 103d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $579.19 · official $579.20 (match) · 160 history records