Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:27:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EC 0xecd5…a583 world 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$428per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$563now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 97d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% +$5
world 46% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +2.7% -7.0% 100% 0% -7.0%
≤90d 2 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.9%
all 3 +1.3% -8.3% 67% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 0% -8.7%
10% -17.1% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$563
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage97d
Avg bet$428
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $563 $563 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? May 28 $219 +$6 +3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $398 +$5 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $531 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $563 1h
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $225 25d
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $219 28d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 83¢ $403 45d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 82¢ $398 57d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 74¢ $531 96d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 74¢ $531 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $563.22 · official $563.22 (match) · 21 history records