Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:04:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecd7…8370 other 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate47%35W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$2
other 28% $0
crypto 7% +$1
politics 6% +$2
sports 4% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.0% -10.4% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 +24.9% +13.0% 23% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 22 +24.9% +13.0% 23% 5% -9.7%
all 74 +4.7% -5.3% 47% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 4% -9.6%
10% -14.3% 3% -18.2%
15% -22.6% 3% -26.1%
20% -30.2% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses35 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage479d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $89 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $26 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $5 $0 -8%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $80 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $21 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $41 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $13 −$1 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $76 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $4 $0 -9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $23 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $15 $0 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $4 −$1 -27%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $43 +$2 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $17 $0 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Cătălin Predoiu? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
US military action against Iran by Saturday? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Hegseth caught drinking before June? May 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $114K on May 30? May 29 $14 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? May 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in May? May 29 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 23? May 24 $14 $0 +2%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 22 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 16 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma May 15 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $12 $0 +4%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 28 $2 $0 +14%
Will the Liberal Party win less than 35% of the vote in the 2025 Canad Apr 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 27 $4 −$1 -27%
Will the Patriots draft Will Campbell? Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $33 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $8 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $32 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $14 45h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $26 45h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $41 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $26 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $26 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $27 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $13 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $40 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $13 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $21 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $21 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $34 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $34 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $40 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $40 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $40 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $13 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 213 history records