Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:07:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecdb…c3b4 weather 975 markets active 3h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate92%891W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$9
14 days+$10
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -1.0% -10.5% 93% 4% -7.6%
≤30d 221 +0.5% -9.1% 95% 5% -8.0%
≤90d 911 -0.2% -9.7% 94% 8% -9.1%
all 969 -0.6% -10.1% 92% 9% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 9% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses891 / 78
Open positions6
Markets (closed)969 / 975
History coverage115d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 969 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? No 96¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $15 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 97¢ $15 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 95¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $6 26h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $9 27h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 35h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 35h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 36h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 44h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 45h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.66 · official $28.66 (match) · 1951 history records