Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:10:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecde…04ef sports 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%58W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$73
14 days−$28
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$84
other 31% +$77
world 4% −$42
crypto 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +4.0% -5.9% 57% 57% -1.3%
≤30d 113 -6.5% -15.4% 51% 51% -11.2%
≤90d 113 -6.5% -15.4% 51% 51% -11.2%
all 113 -6.5% -15.4% 51% 51% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 51% -11.2%
10% -23.5% 50% -19.7%
15% -30.9% 48% -27.5%
20% -37.7% 37% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses58 / 55
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)113 / 115
History coverage26d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 62¢ 62¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $32 +$13 +42%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $26 +$25 +97%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 −$19 -94%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$11 +52%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 +$54 +523%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $29 +$22 +73%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 22 $20 −$19 -99%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $18 +$12 +65%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $19 +$11 +57%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$11 +103%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $15 +$14 +89%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 −$9 -59%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $10 +$5 +46%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $22 −$11 -48%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$8 +38%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $29 −$26 -88%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 +$7 +37%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $34 +$15 +43%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$13 +62%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $10 −$9 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $12 −$12 -94%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$3 +33%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 +$15 +76%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $23 +$11 +46%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$7 +34%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $14 +$16 +109%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$3 +55%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 +$9 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $39 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $25 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $45 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 10h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $52 10h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 44¢ $1 13h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 0¢ $0 14h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 4¢ $1 14h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ $26 15h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $20 16h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $24 19h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 65¢ $30 30h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 71¢ $64 31h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 34h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 34h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 40¢ $10 34h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $20 38h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $15 39h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 47h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $29 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $18 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 63¢ $21 2d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $19 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 58¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $10 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 45¢ $10 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 90¢ $29 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $15 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $6 2d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 82¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.54 · official $63.54 (match) · 195 history records