Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EC
0xecde…7438
other · 36 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$1 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses26 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage99d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%
Chart Positions 1 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Over 95¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will CA Central Córdoba win on 2026-04-05? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-15? Yes 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
CA River Plate vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 1.5 Over 94¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Santos FC win on 2026-04-14? Yes 90¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
CA Boca Juniors vs. CD Universidad Católica: O/U 0.5 May 30 $2 $0 +13%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 29 $2 +$1 +27%
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5 May 14 $2 $0 +13%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 05 $5 −$5 -99%
CA River Plate vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 1.5 May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-25? May 03 $3 +$1 +27%
CA River Plate vs. CA Aldosivi: O/U 1.5 May 03 $3 +$1 +48%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-24? Apr 26 $6 $0 +1%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 24 $2 $0 +14%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-15? Apr 22 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $8 $0 +3%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 14 $2 $0 +13%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 Apr 14 $4 $0 +11%
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-04-13? Apr 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Racing Club vs. CA River Plate: O/U 1.5 Apr 13 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $2 +$2 +86%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-19? Apr 10 $4 +$3 +79%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -99%
Will CA Central Córdoba win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-03-16? Mar 19 $4 +$2 +43%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $4 +$1 +30%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $3 +$1 +30%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08? Mar 14 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10? Mar 14 $1 +$2 +163%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? Mar 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 64% +$2
sports 36% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $2 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $2 13h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $2 23h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $2 41h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $1 2d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 14d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $2 15d
CA Boca Juniors vs. CD Universidad Católica: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $2 16d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 30d
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $2 37d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $5 39d
CA River Plate vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $2 41d
CA River Plate vs. CA Aldosivi: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $3 49d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 78¢ $3 49d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-24? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 50d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 87¢ $2 52d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 59d
Will Santos FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 90¢ $3 60d
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 60d
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $8 60d
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 60d
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $2 60d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $4 60d
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-04-13? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 61d
Racing Club vs. CA River Plate: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $3 62d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 63d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 64d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 64d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 66d
Will CA Central Córdoba win on 2026-04-05? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +8.6% -1.7% 100% 40% -2.3%
≤30d 8 -2.0% -11.4% 88% 50% -6.1%
≤90d 29 -4.4% -13.5% 76% 59% -12.0%
all 35 -1.2% -10.6% 74% 60% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 60% -10.4%
10% -19.1% 40% -19.0%
15% -27.0% 23% -26.8%
20% -34.1% 14% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.99 · official $1.99 (match) · 63 history records