Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:40:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EC 0xece2…0c61 other 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$532 (+4%) realized +$509 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%32W / 44L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$344now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$174
7 days−$144
14 days−$97
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$552
sports 5% −$50
crypto 3% −$83
politics 0% +$4
economics 0% −$18
tech 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -41.5% -47.0% 33% 33% -41.2%
≤30d 5 -16.6% -24.6% 40% 40% -23.4%
≤90d 17 +4.7% -5.3% 53% 53% +7.7%
all 76 -8.5% -17.2% 42% 41% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 41% -2.6%
10% -25.1% 33% -11.9%
15% -32.3% 22% -20.4%
20% -39.0% 14% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$98 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$344
Realized+$509
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses32 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)76 / 79
History coverage236d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $154 $188 +$34 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $130 $119 −$11 (-8%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $141 −$106 -75%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 −$68 -67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $169 +$30 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $99 +$47 +48%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $204 −$13 -6%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 20 $98 −$22 -23%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $157 +$41 +26%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $10 −$8 -81%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $244 +$64 +26%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $60 −$18 -30%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $75 +$67 +90%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $757 +$211 +28%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $75 +$64 +86%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $127 +$61 +48%
Will Göztepe SK win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $150 +$289 +192%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $100 −$49 -49%
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Mar 17 $100 +$41 +41%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $587 −$34 -6%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-03-13? Mar 13 $727 −$727 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $149 +$284 +190%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $399 −$399 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Alanyaspor end in a draw? Feb 28 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $449 −$228 -51%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-23? Feb 23 $570 −$570 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-19? Feb 19 $100 +$160 +160%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $143 −$70 -49%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $164 +$186 +113%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 10 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-09? Feb 09 $292 +$76 +26%
Will Kocaelispor win on 2026-02-02? Feb 02 $229 −$17 -8%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-02? Feb 02 $393 +$65 +17%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $498 +$116 +23%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $995 +$97 +10%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $783 −$454 -58%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-22? Jan 22 $31 +$48 +156%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-21? Jan 21 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $405 +$299 +74%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 18 $50 +$6 +11%
Brevis FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jan 06 $99 −$16 -17%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $101 +$33 +32%
Infinex FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jan 04 $150 +$22 +15%
Nothing Ever Happens: January Jan 03 $227 −$211 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 2? Jan 02 $13 −$9 -74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 2? Jan 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Dec 30 $200 +$66 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $37 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 18¢ $35 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $141 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $104 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $91 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 23¢ $34 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $199 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $169 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $147 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $99 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $108 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $108 14d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 51¢ $191 22d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $204 22d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 51¢ $75 32d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $98 32d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $198 32d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $157 32d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 32d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 32d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? SELL Yes 78¢ $308 32d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 61¢ $244 32d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 2¢ $72 56d
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-04-19? SELL Yes 34¢ $42 63d
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $60 63d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? SELL Yes 85¢ $142 63d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $75 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $343.78 · official $343.79 (match) · 251 history records