Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:03:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EC 0xece5…43cf weather 523 markets active 3h ago coverage 57d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,743 (+2%) realized +$4,685 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%504W / 9L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$397per market
Trades / day54.1pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$5,617now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$184
14 days+$333
30 days+$1,081
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$3,450
other 3% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +3.1% -6.7% 98% 7% -8.3%
≤30d 228 +1.7% -8.0% 98% 2% -8.4%
≤90d 513 +2.0% -7.7% 98% 2% -8.0%
all 513 +2.0% -7.7% 98% 2% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 2% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 1% -16.8%
15% -24.6% 1% -24.8%
20% -32.0% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$588) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$59 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.56 per $1 lost it wins $7.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$5,617
Realized+$4,685
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses504 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)513 / 523
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$397
Trades / day54.1
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 513 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,936 $1,956 +$21 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C or higher on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,035 $1,044 +$10 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C or higher on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $990 $1,000 +$10 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $500 $592 +$92 (+18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $477 $371 −$106 (-22%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 26? Yes 88¢ 97¢ $266 $294 +$27 (+10%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 27? No 99¢ 100¢ $180 $181 +$1 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 26? No 98¢ 100¢ $115 $118 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $43 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 25? Jun 26 $123 +$10 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25? Jun 25 $990 −$13 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $27 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 25? Jun 25 $257 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $460 +$6 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $6 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 24? Jun 24 $11 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $44 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $52 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 24? Jun 24 $196 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $990 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 59°F or below on June Jun 24 $113 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 23? Jun 23 $990 +$10 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $298 +$6 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $399 +$4 +1%
Harry Kane: 1+ shots Jun 23 $990 +$10 +1%
Harry Kane: 2+ shots Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $484 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2,378 +$20 +1%
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots Jun 23 $60 +$10 +17%
Erling Haaland: 2+ shots Jun 23 $40 +$14 +36%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 22 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? Jun 22 $310 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? Jun 22 $137 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $267 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $114 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 21 $1,127 +$15 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $578 +$6 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? Jun 21 $485 +$14 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? Jun 21 $578 +$31 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $303 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $71 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $313 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on June Jun 19 $990 +$10 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $990 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June Jun 18 $495 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 18 $490 +$10 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 18 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 18 $264 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 26? BUY Yes 88¢ $268 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $17 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $104 16h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $76 16h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25? SELL No 95¢ $35 16h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25? SELL No 95¢ $32 16h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25? SELL No 95¢ $100 16h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25? SELL No 95¢ $31 16h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25? SELL No 95¢ $27 16h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25? SELL No 95¢ $100 16h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 25? BUY No 92¢ $123 17h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $20 17h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $169 17h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $297 17h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $50 18h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $50 18h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $50 20h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on June BUY No 99¢ $17 45h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $43 45h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $47 45h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $15 45h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 25°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $3 45h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $5 45h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 27°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $6 45h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $11 45h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $44 46h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $52 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,617.29 · official $5,617.29 (match) · 3500 history records