Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:56:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xece6…b10c sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$235 (-17%) realized −$235 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%20W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days−$121
14 days−$148
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$150
other 26% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +11.2% +0.6% 54% 42% -19.5%
≤30d 39 -2.2% -11.5% 51% 44% -18.5%
≤90d 39 -2.2% -11.5% 51% 44% -18.5%
all 39 -2.2% -11.5% 51% 44% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 44% -18.5%
10% -20.0% 41% -26.3%
15% -27.7% 33% -33.5%
20% -34.8% 31% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$27 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$235
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses20 / 19
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage10d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $9 +$26 +287%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $128 +$9 +7%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $68 +$63 +93%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $52 +$17 +33%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $13 −$13 -95%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$48 +469%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $24 +$27 +109%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $11 +$12 +108%
Colombia vs. Portugal: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $38 +$1 +2%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$7 +69%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $59 −$58 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $176 −$174 -99%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $141 +$33 +23%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $20 −$16 -79%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $16 −$5 -34%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $20 +$10 +51%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $40 +$11 +26%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $40 +$27 +67%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $85 −$65 -76%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 21 $25 −$21 -84%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $52 +$8 +16%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $56 +$24 +43%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $33 +$24 +73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 +$11 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13 +$9 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$4 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 50m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $138 50m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 92¢ $128 58m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $131 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $68 3h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $69 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 SELL Over 1¢ $1 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $52 24h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $52 39h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 40h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 88¢ $58 40h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 40h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $51 40h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $24 42h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 42h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 77¢ $23 42h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 36¢ $11 42h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $3 43h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $38 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 90¢ $38 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $38 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $59 3d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $176 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $174 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $141 3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $20 5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5 5d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 9¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records