Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EC 0xece7…3353 sports 585 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate61%346W / 221L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$10
14 days+$160
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$29
sports 30% −$73
other 15% +$83
world 5% −$82
politics 3% −$1
weather 3% −$5
tech 2% +$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +3.7% -6.2% 54% 52% -7.7%
≤30d 190 -2.0% -11.4% 50% 44% -12.1%
≤90d 429 +0.9% -8.7% 56% 36% -10.4%
all 567 -1.8% -11.1% 61% 28% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 28% -10.6%
10% -19.6% 25% -19.1%
15% -27.4% 22% -26.9%
20% -34.5% 19% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses346 / 221
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions18
Markets (closed)567 / 585
History coverage130d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 567 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? No 83¢ 99¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? No 64¢ 69¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 95¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+14%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 65¢ 70¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+8%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 36¢ 100¢ $5 $12 +$8 (+173%)
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be 120,000 voters or higher? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 100,000 and 110,000 voters? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 41¢ 40¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? No 36¢ 22¢ $6 $4 −$3 (-40%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? No 16¢ 4¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
No one announced as next James Bond? No 32¢ 1¢ $7 $0 −$6 (-97%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 53¢ 78¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+48%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 16¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? No 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$47 +756%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $7 +$7 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $7 +$10 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $8 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$5 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$23 +152%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $7 +$5 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $14 +$3 +20%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $14 +$3 +20%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$7 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 +$4 +27%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $15 +$19 +124%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $15 +$10 +65%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$6 +42%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $15 +$18 +119%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$7 +46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $15 +$35 +226%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$10 +67%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $15 +$6 +42%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$3 +21%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $15 +$5 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $15 3h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 90¢ $15 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $7 6h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 7h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $7 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $7 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $0 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $7 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $6 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $8 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.59 · official $189.22 (match) · 1615 history records