Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:05:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EC 0xece8…a902 other 24 markets active 2d ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$16
crypto 25% +$8
sports 19% +$12
politics 8% $0
finance 3% −$4
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +19.5% +8.1% 60% 60% +10.3%
≤30d 5 +19.5% +8.1% 60% 60% +10.3%
≤90d 7 +15.5% +4.5% 57% 57% +3.8%
all 23 -12.4% -20.8% 48% 35% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 35% -9.3%
10% -28.4% 30% -18.0%
15% -35.3% 26% -25.9%
20% -41.6% 17% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage161d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +190%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +60%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 29 $10 $0 -2%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 29 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Águilas Doradas Rionegro win on 2026-01-25? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cúcuta Deportivo FC win on 2026-01-27? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 26 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-17? Jan 13 $6 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 13 $2 $0 +7%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $182 end of January? Jan 13 $3 $0 -6%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of January? Jan 13 $2 $0 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January? Jan 13 $15 +$7 +49%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 13 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-01-12? Jan 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? Jan 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $160 in January? Jan 08 $10 $0 -4%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 08 $5 $0 +3%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on January 8? Jan 07 $5 +$2 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $15 47h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 5d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 61¢ $10 49d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 49d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 61¢ $10 52d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 52d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-11? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 98d
Will Águilas Doradas Rionegro win on 2026-01-25? BUY Yes $1 142d
Will Cúcuta Deportivo FC win on 2026-01-27? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 142d
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) beat quarterly earnings? SELL No $0 153d
Rams vs. Bears BUY Rams 66¢ $2 154d
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No $4 154d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $6 155d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 82¢ $2 155d
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $182 end of January? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 155d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of January? SELL Yes 70¢ $2 155d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 155d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $6 157d
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-01-12? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 157d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 157d
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $182 end of January? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 158d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of January? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 158d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 76¢ $2 158d
Texans vs. Steelers BUY Texans 60¢ $1 158d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 160d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.19 · official $3.19 (match) · 40 history records