Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:16:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecea…232c crypto 1132 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$303 (+1%) realized +$303 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate71%808W / 324L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$110
7 days−$362
14 days+$32
30 days+$945
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$574
other 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -14.4% -22.6% 60% 60% -21.6%
≤30d 582 +3.3% -6.6% 73% 68% -5.8%
≤90d 1056 +0.7% -8.9% 73% 66% -7.3%
all 1132 -0.4% -9.9% 71% 64% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 64% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 52% -17.0%
15% -26.4% 36% -25.0%
20% -33.6% 17% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$33 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$303
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses808 / 324
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1132 / 1132
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1132 Trades
no open positions (263 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $43 +$43 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $57 −$56 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $49 +$27 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $63 +$28 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $47 +$34 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $53 −$51 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $49 +$42 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $69 +$16 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $38 −$37 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $65 +$26 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $59 −$58 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $61 +$13 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $44 −$43 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$24 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $47 +$35 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $45 +$27 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$51 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $45 −$44 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $47 −$46 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $61 +$20 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $62 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $48 +$26 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $43 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $53 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $43 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $58 +$16 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $72 +$13 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $64 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $60 +$13 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $59 −$58 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $56 +$19 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $60 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $47 −$46 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $69 −$69 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $39 −$38 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $70 +$12 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $65 +$13 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $69 −$68 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $80 −$79 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $43 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $57 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $49 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $63 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $47 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $53 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $51 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $49 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $69 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $38 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $65 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $59 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $51 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $61 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $44 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $52 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $47 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $45 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $52 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $45 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $47 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $61 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $62 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $48 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $43 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records