Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:24:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecec…7b69 other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%24W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$2
other 32% $0
politics 6% −$2
tech 5% $0
crypto 4% +$1
sports 3% −$1
weather 2% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 25% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.1%
all 61 -0.9% -10.4% 39% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 3% -9.4%
10% -18.9% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses24 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage470d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $43 −$1 -3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $89 +$3 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $79 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $126 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $12 −$1 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $82 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $38 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $2 $0 +29%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jun 26 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 22 $7 $0 -0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Jun 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 16 $7 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 15 $7 $0 -6%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 15 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%? Jun 04 $8 $0 -0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 04 $7 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? Jun 01 $1 $0 +11%
Will the Mumbai Indians win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 31 $8 −$1 -16%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 30 $3 −$2 -54%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 30 $7 $0 +3%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? May 28 $7 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 26 $10 $0 -1%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? May 21 $24 $0 +1%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 22 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $1 $0 -9%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 08 $12 $0 +2%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 07 $2 $0 -11%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 06 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 62¢ $42 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $43 4h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $47 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $46 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $45 13h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 79¢ $43 15h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $40 29h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $40 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $21 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $21 37h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $44 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $44 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $0 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $13 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $9 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $22 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $0 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $0 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $1 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $1 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 175 history records