Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:21:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EC 0xeced…c598 other 1209 markets active 1h ago coverage 693d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,420 (+13%) realized +$1,348 · open +$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%707W / 426L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1,715now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$242
7 days+$457
14 days+$998
30 days+$1,223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$895
world 21% −$198
tech 10% +$252
culture 8% +$126
politics 8% −$31
sports 7% +$109
finance 4% +$35
crypto 2% +$48
economics 2% +$24
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +73.5% +57.0% 92% 92% +33.8%
≤30d 272 +31.5% +19.0% 84% 79% +6.6%
≤90d 299 +29.9% +17.6% 83% 74% +3.9%
all 1133 +5.5% -4.5% 62% 58% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 58% +2.0%
10% -13.7% 51% -7.8%
15% -22.0% 37% -16.7%
20% -29.7% 29% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

693d coverage
Net worth$1,715
Realized+$1,348
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses707 / 426
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions76
Markets (closed)1133 / 1209
History coverage693d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 76 History 1133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 gross profit margin 70%+? No 82¢ 86¢ $143 $151 +$7 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on June 30? No 63¢ 95¢ $35 $54 +$18 (+51%)
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $1.00T on June 30? No 63¢ 90¢ $36 $51 +$15 (+42%)
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be less than 2.0? No 57¢ 90¢ $32 $50 +$18 (+57%)
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.50T on June 30? No 63¢ 87¢ $35 $49 +$14 (+38%)
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 24 be between 95 and 100? No 61¢ 64¢ $45 $47 +$2 (+4%)
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 91¢ $37 $47 +$10 (+26%)
Netflix (NFLX) Q2 operating margin <30%? No 58¢ 80¢ $33 $46 +$13 (+39%)
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 24 be less than 80? No 60¢ 59¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Netflix (NFLX) Q2 operating margin 36%+? No 58¢ 75¢ $33 $43 +$10 (+29%)
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? No 60¢ 56¢ $45 $41 −$3 (-7%)
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? No 60¢ 55¢ $45 $41 −$4 (-8%)
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? Yes 71¢ 76¢ $37 $39 +$2 (+7%)
Will "The Invite" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? No 67¢ 90¢ $29 $39 +$10 (+34%)
Will Core CPI YoY be 3.2% in June? No 59¢ 84¢ $26 $37 +$11 (+42%)
Netflix (NFLX) Q2 operating margin 30%-32%? No 58¢ 62¢ $33 $35 +$2 (+7%)
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 gross profit margin 69%-70%? No 63¢ 59¢ $37 $34 −$2 (-6%)
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 24 be at least 100? No 61¢ 60¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 24 be between 80 and 85? No 59¢ 82¢ $24 $34 +$10 (+40%)
Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? No 60¢ 56¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-7%)
Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? No 60¢ 56¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-7%)
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%? No 57¢ 58¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Core CPI YoY be 3.1% in June? No 58¢ 62¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+6%)
Will San Marino win Junior Eurovision 2026? No 60¢ 83¢ $18 $25 +$7 (+38%)
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 24 be between 90 and 95? No 60¢ 44¢ $34 $24 −$9 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 27, 2026? Jun 21 $46 +$23 +49%
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on June 27, 2026? Jun 21 $3 −$1 -23%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 26, 2026 Jun 21 $62 +$14 +23%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $47 +$15 +31%
Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $46 +$14 +30%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $39 +$12 +32%
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 35 by June 30? Jun 21 $10 −$8 -80%
Will the median home value in Chicago be greater than $354,000 on June Jun 21 $14 +$10 +69%
Will "Ticket To Paradise (2022)" be the #2 global Netflix movie this w Jun 20 $23 +$5 +24%
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on Jun 20 $33 +$22 +67%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in June? Jun 20 $28 +$15 +52%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Jun 20 $44 +$27 +61%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -72%
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $51 +$21 +41%
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $39 +$16 +40%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $45 +$9 +19%
Will Romelu Lukaku win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $12 +$4 +38%
Will Italy win Junior Eurovision 2026? Jun 20 $25 +$14 +56%
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $29 +$9 +31%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $38 +$16 +42%
Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30 Jun 20 $14 +$6 +42%
Will two people dissent the July Fed decision? Jun 19 $24 +$9 +37%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti Jun 19 $44 +$29 +65%
Will "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the Jun 19 $13 +$3 +21%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by June 30? Jun 19 $16 +$13 +84%
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1. Jun 19 $14 +$10 +73%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.9% or more in June? Jun 18 $27 +$13 +48%
Will Beyonce have a #1 hit in June? Jun 18 $13 +$11 +86%
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $18 +$12 +65%
Will Warsh say "Rate" or "Cut" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $26 +$6 +25%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in June? Jun 17 $29 +$14 +50%
Will Ireland win Junior Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $29 +$16 +56%
Will Nicolás Otamendi be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 16 $4 +$46 +1282%
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoe Jun 16 $13 +$12 +90%
Will Dirceu Ten Caten win the Governor of Pará election? Jun 16 $13 +$7 +50%
Will Deutsche Bank or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 15 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1. Jun 15 $14 +$10 +73%
Will fewer than 100 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026? Jun 14 $16 +$9 +59%
Will K'Andre Miller lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in assists? Jun 14 $12 +$4 +36%
Will Cole Smith lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in assists? Jun 14 $12 +$5 +40%
Will George Strait attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $14 +$11 +81%
Will Steve Carell attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +56%
Will Euclério Sampaio win the Governor of Espírito Santo election? Jun 13 $18 +$7 +36%
Will Malik Tillman be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIFA Jun 12 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Shogo Taniguchi be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Nathan Aké be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -97%
Will William Saliba be in France's Starting 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Timothy Castagne be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 12 $9 −$8 -98%
Will Thomas Meunier be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Santiago Arias be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 12 $7 +$51 +741%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY No 60¢ $45 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY No 60¢ $36 1h
Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY No 60¢ $36 1h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY No 60¢ $45 1h
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 24 be betwe BUY No 60¢ $34 1h
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 24 be betwe BUY No 59¢ $25 2h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 27, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $50 2h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 27, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $18 2h
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 2h
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 27, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $45 2h
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on June 26, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $7 2h
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on June 26, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $6 2h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 26, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $13 2h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 26, 2026 SELL No 92¢ $46 2h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 26, 2026 BUY No 90¢ $29 2h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 26, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $18 2h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 26, 2026 BUY No 63¢ $33 2h
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on June 26, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $18 2h
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on June 26, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $18 2h
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $3 2h
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 2h
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 24 be betwe BUY No 61¢ $46 3h
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 24 be at le BUY No 61¢ $36 3h
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 24 be less BUY No 60¢ $46 3h
Will White House post 120-139 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 4h
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 5h
Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,714.68 · official $1,713.40 (match) · 2862 history records