Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecef…4551 crypto 1205 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$733 (-2%) realized −$736 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate77%940W / 281L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day55.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$167
14 days−$452
30 days−$427
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$673
weather 42% −$347
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -36.1% -42.1% 44% 19% -17.2%
≤30d 215 -9.8% -18.4% 72% 20% -11.6%
≤90d 1221 -5.3% -14.3% 77% 27% -11.7%
all 1221 -5.3% -14.3% 77% 27% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 27% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 13% -20.1%
15% -30.0% 6% -27.8%
20% -36.9% 3% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$14 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$736
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses940 / 281
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1221 / 1205
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day55.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 113 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 2? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 2? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $51 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $47 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $44 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$2 -12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $37 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 14 $41 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $62 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $33 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $108 −$79 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $98 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $77 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $164 −$86 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $165 +$18 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $68 +$8 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $69 +$10 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $69 +$14 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 97¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $48 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 80¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 87¢ $42 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $51 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $51 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $49 8h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $50 9h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $47 16h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $44 32h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $43 33h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $40 34h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL No 71¢ $18 42h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $20 42h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $24 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? SELL No 90¢ $42 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $41 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $35 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $37 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 88¢ $33 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? SELL No 92¢ $33 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $32 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 70¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 69¢ $14 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 80¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.03 · official $53.03 (match) · 3500 history records