Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:14:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecf4…e68c crypto 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (354 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+2%) realized +$52 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%20W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day354.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (354 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -16.7% -24.6% 48% 36% -7.2%
≤30d 42 -16.7% -24.6% 48% 36% -7.2%
≤90d 42 -16.7% -24.6% 48% 36% -7.2%
all 42 -16.7% -24.6% 48% 36% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover354.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.6% 36% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.8% 21% -16.1%
15% -38.4% 12% -24.2%
20% -44.4% 2% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$52
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses20 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage1d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day354.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 68¢ 56¢ $39 $32 −$7 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$36 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 29 $54 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 29 $201 +$64 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 29 $101 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 29 $7 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 29 $85 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 29 $7 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $23 +$10 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 29 $17 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $102 −$77 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $57 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 29 $75 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 29 $12 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $29 −$24 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $24 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $11 +$6 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $24 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 29 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $74 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 29 $138 +$15 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 29 $47 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 29 $92 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 29 $70 −$54 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 29 $32 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $211 +$75 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 28 $97 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 28 $242 −$11 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $21 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $17 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $27 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $18 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $20 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $17 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $9 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $23 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 14m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.64 · official $28.21 · 389 history records