Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EC 0xecf6…5c04 other 5 markets active 15h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$27 (+17%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +134% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +112% what you keep after slip
Net edge+112%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+111.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +134.2% +111.9% 100% 67% +55.8%
≤30d 3 +134.2% +111.9% 100% 67% +55.8%
≤90d 3 +134.2% +111.9% 100% 67% +55.8%
all 3 +134.2% +111.9% 100% 67% +55.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +111.9% 67% +55.8%
10% +91.6% 67% +40.9%
15% +73.1% 67% +27.3%
20% +56.1% 33% +14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +72% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +134% · $-wt +72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage4d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $5 +$19 +363%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $103 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 15h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 15h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 19h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL No 100¢ $27 19h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 73¢ $20 27h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 15¢ $98 27h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 4d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.26 · official $30.26 (match) · 8 history records