Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecf8…603b other 531 markets active 0h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$4,330 (-12%) realized −$4,326 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate69%359W / 161L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$356now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$98
14 days+$50
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$4,048
politics 40% +$50
crypto 5% −$72
world 5% −$409
culture 1% −$56
sports 1% −$121
tech 0% −$13
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +9.9% -0.6% 45% 28% -2.7%
≤30d 84 +2.3% -7.4% 56% 21% -11.9%
≤90d 86 +2.3% -7.4% 57% 21% -11.8%
all 520 +2.4% -7.3% 69% 15% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 15% -21.3%
10% -16.2% 11% -28.8%
15% -24.3% 9% -35.7%
20% -31.7% 8% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$43 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$356
Realized−$4,326
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses359 / 161
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)520 / 531
History coverage229d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 520 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? Yes 91¢ 93¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? Yes 91¢ 93¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+2%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 96¢ 93¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 84¢ 76¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+119%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026? Yes 95¢ 93¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? No 78¢ 20¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Jun 17 $199 +$10 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $102 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $168 +$42 +25%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $105 +$10 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $93 +$5 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $55 +$2 +4%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +39%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 +$14 +69%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2 $0 -14%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +72%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2 $0 +24%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 10 $12 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $11 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $114 15m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $96 15m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $51 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $81 3h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 6h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 16h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $87 16h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $117 16h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $78 17h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 20h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 20h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 21h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $16 21h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 21h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 22h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 22h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $16 23h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 23h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 26h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $15 34h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $60 40h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $31 41h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $15 46h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $14 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $82 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $77 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $24 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $33 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $48 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $356.11 · official $356.11 (match) · 1783 history records