Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:55:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EC 0xecf8…f9cb other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$9 (+6%) realized +$16 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$7
world 20% +$12
sports 5% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 +46.2% +32.3% 100% 100% +28.6%
all 3 +46.2% +32.3% 100% 100% +28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.3% 100% +28.6%
10% +19.7% 100% +16.3%
15% +8.1% 100% +5.1%
20% -2.5% 33% -5.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)3 / 10
History coverage58d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 43¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-51%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 11 $6 +$4 +56%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $22 +$8 +37%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 23 $7 +$3 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.69 · official $96.71 (match) · 14 history records