Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:28:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EC 0xecfa…7fe0 crypto 486 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate84%409W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day32.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$31
14 days−$16
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 +0.1% -9.4% 88% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 486 -2.6% -11.9% 84% 1% -8.9%
≤90d 486 -2.6% -11.9% 84% 1% -8.9%
all 486 -2.6% -11.9% 84% 1% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 1% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 0% -17.6%
15% -28.0% 0% -25.6%
20% -35.1% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses409 / 77
Open positions0
Markets (closed)486 / 486
History coverage22d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day32.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 486 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $99 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $99 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $98 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $57 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $59 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $59 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $59 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $59 −$8 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $31 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $69 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $99 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $99 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $98 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $55 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $59 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $57 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $59 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $12 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $27 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1162 history records