Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:47:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xecfc…b651 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$421 (-21%) realized −$415 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%6W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days−$62
14 days−$434
30 days−$434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$631
sports 36% +$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +91.3% +73.1% 30% 30% -13.5%
≤30d 26 +50.7% +36.3% 23% 23% -30.7%
≤90d 26 +50.7% +36.3% 23% 23% -30.7%
all 26 +50.7% +36.3% 23% 23% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.3% 23% -30.7%
10% +23.3% 23% -37.3%
15% +11.4% 23% -43.4%
20% +0.5% 19% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +70% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$67 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$415
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses6 / 20
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage9d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$170 +873%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 +$231 +226%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$158 +308%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $245 −$244 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +43%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $62 −$60 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$157 +307%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$141 +1372%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $99 −$8 -8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 11h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $190 11h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 14h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 29h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $10 29h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 29h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $333 32h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 33h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $51 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $209 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $145 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $61 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $62 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $208 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $51 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 60¢ $97 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.67 · official $93.67 (match) · 37 history records