Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:23:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EC 0xecfc…2e0c other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 277d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,131 (+14%) realized +$811 · open +$320
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$537per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$893now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,261
7 days−$559
14 days+$660
30 days+$660
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$962
other 48% +$2,092
crypto 1% −$109
economics 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -5.8% -14.7% 43% 43% -17.9%
≤30d 13 -18.0% -25.8% 38% 38% -1.5%
≤90d 13 -18.0% -25.8% 38% 38% -1.5%
all 13 -18.0% -25.8% 38% 38% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 38% -1.5%
10% -32.9% 38% -10.9%
15% -39.4% 38% -19.5%
20% -45.3% 23% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$539 vs −$254 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

277d coverage
Net worth$893
Realized+$811
Unrealized+$320
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage277d
Avg bet$537
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $473 $777 +$304 (+64%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,005 +$375 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $295 +$275 +93%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $496 −$201 -41%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2,141 −$1,604 -75%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,500 +$717 +48%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $504 −$15 -3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $321 +$345 +107%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $986 +$982 +100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Cowboys vs. Bears Jun 13 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $103 26m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $464 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down $106 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $570 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 51¢ $295 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 29¢ $295 20h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $496 21h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $496 21h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $542 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 14¢ $537 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $2,141 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,500 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $487 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $489 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $504 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $666 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $321 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,054 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 87¢ $914 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $986 8d
Cowboys vs. Bears BUY Cowboys 51¢ $64 276d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $20 277d
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $20 277d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $893.16 · official $893.16 (match) · 38 history records