Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:03:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EC 0xecfd…dd23 weather 39 markets active 19h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+3%) realized +$33 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 26L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$14
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$4
weather 14% −$6
other 9% +$3
crypto 5% +$17
sports 5% +$13
world 5% −$1
culture 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -8.6% -17.3% 50% 50% +10.5%
≤30d 8 +16.6% +5.5% 62% 62% +22.5%
≤90d 14 +6.9% -3.3% 57% 57% +5.0%
all 38 +2.5% -7.3% 32% 24% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 24% -6.8%
10% -16.1% 24% -15.7%
15% -24.2% 21% -23.9%
20% -31.7% 21% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$33
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage450d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 24? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 22? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $13 +$4 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 20 $27 +$18 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 17? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$8 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $25 +$15 +58%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 13 $4 +$5 +137%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 13 $14 +$9 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 7? May 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3? May 06 $28 +$17 +62%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 20 $192 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 20 $196 $0 -0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31? Nov 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? Nov 01 $14 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FaZe (BO3) Oct 28 $11 +$6 +54%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 American League Championship? Oct 16 $14 $0 -2%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Oct 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 14 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 13 $15 −$1 -5%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? Oct 06 $25 −$1 -2%
US government shutdown by October 1? Sep 28 $12 $0 -2%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 22 $22 −$1 -5%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 06 $5 $0 -4%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open? Sep 05 $19 $0 -3%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 05 $35 $0 +1%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 04 $29 $0 -2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25-30m views on day 1? Apr 19 $6 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31? Apr 15 $4 $0 -4%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 15 $7 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference? Apr 15 $11 $0 -2%
Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 13 $8 −$1 -10%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $2 $0 -3%
Solana above $130 on April 4? Mar 30 $6 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 19h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 22? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 44h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 75¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 59¢ $27 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? BUY No 62¢ $25 12d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 38d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 36¢ $6 40d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 60¢ $14 43d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $4 44d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 7? BUY Yes 39¢ $24 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 60¢ $28 53d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $192 185d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $192 185d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $196 185d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $196 185d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? BUY No 100¢ $14 237d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $11 237d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 American League Championship? SELL Yes 31¢ $13 250d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 American League Championship? BUY Yes 31¢ $14 250d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 252d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 52¢ $14 252d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 252d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 53¢ $15 252d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? SELL No 38¢ $14 253d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No 40¢ $15 253d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 44¢ $14 255d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.96 · official $10.96 (match) · 81 history records