Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:05:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
ED 0xed01…0cea other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$113 (+9%) realized +$171 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$657now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$146
14 days+$117
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$70
sports 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +16.4% +5.3% 75% 75% +34.9%
≤30d 6 +1.1% -8.5% 67% 67% +17.1%
≤90d 6 +1.1% -8.5% 67% 67% +17.1%
all 6 +1.1% -8.5% 67% 67% +17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 67% +17.1%
10% -17.3% 67% +5.9%
15% -25.2% 50% -4.4%
20% -32.6% 33% -13.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$32 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$657
Realized+$171
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)6 / 15
History coverage14d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $155 $158 +$3 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $115 $84 −$31 (-27%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-22%)
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 8¢ $15 $5 −$10 (-69%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez Alvarez 40¢ 10¢ $15 $4 −$11 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$84 +83%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $79 +$24 +30%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $159 7h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $151 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 28h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $101 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $79 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 11d
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 11d
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 11d
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez BUY Alvarez 40¢ $15 13d
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 13d
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 13d
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 13d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $657.43 · official $659.18 (match) · 37 history records