Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:33:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
ED 0xed01…89b7 weather 711 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$343 (-1%) realized −$77 · open −$266
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate84%589W / 109L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$521now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$342
14 days+$284
30 days−$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 59% −$366
sports 36% +$60
crypto 4% −$153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -3.2% -12.4% 83% 7% -7.0%
≤30d 302 -9.5% -18.1% 81% 12% -10.0%
≤90d 698 -5.1% -14.2% 84% 35% -10.0%
all 698 -5.1% -14.2% 84% 35% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 35% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 11% -18.6%
15% -29.9% 1% -26.5%
20% -36.8% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$22 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$521
Realized−$77
Unrealized−$266
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses589 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions13
Markets (closed)698 / 711
History coverage64d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 698 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 78¢ 100¢ $235 $300 +$65 (+28%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 98¢ 66¢ $150 $100 −$50 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? Yes 38¢ 37¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $34 $37 +$2 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $19 $11 −$7 (-40%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Yes 34¢ 31¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Yes 91¢ 0¢ $274 $0 −$274 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $150 +$3 +2%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $150 +$3 +2%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $52 +$108 +210%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $700 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +3%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $150 +$1 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $150 +$3 +2%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $300 +$6 +2%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $45 +$1 +2%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $130 +$3 +2%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $150 +$3 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $36 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $577 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $576 +$156 +27%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $401 +$12 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $164 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $150 +$2 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $30 +$2 +7%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $150 +$1 +1%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $150 +$3 +2%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $150 +$3 +2%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $105 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $1,173 +$18 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $160 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$2 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $241 +$2 +1%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $150 +$3 +2%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $135 +$1 +1%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $199 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $295 +$22 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $545 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $115 +$130 +113%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $32 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 12 $210 −$210 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $105 −$92 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $119 −$3 -2%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 11 $150 +$3 +2%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $30 +$1 +4%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $120 +$2 +2%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $150 +$3 +2%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $67 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 85¢ $113 36m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 85¢ $57 36m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 65¢ $66 45m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 38¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 31¢ $36 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 98¢ $15 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 98¢ $15 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 98¢ $15 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 98¢ $15 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 98¢ $15 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 98¢ $15 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 98¢ $15 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 98¢ $15 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 98¢ $15 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 98¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 98¢ $15 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 98¢ $15 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 98¢ $15 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 98¢ $15 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 98¢ $15 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $521.40 · official $521.41 (match) · 2244 history records