Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:39:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
ED 0xed04…9efa world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$22 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%21W / 19L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 97% +$11
other 2% +$9
crypto 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -22.8% -30.1% 50% 40% -13.5%
≤30d 23 +36.3% +23.3% 52% 48% -1.3%
≤90d 40 +14.6% +3.7% 52% 48% -4.2%
all 40 +14.6% +3.7% 52% 48% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 48% -4.2%
10% -6.2% 32% -13.4%
15% -15.3% 30% -21.8%
20% -23.6% 22% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses21 / 19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage68d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 42¢ 64¢ $14 $21 +$7 (+50%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Yes 47¢ 2¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Yes 77¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Yes 86¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $17 +$3 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -79%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -81%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -91%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $7 +$3 +38%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $10 +$3 +32%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $11 +$2 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $27 −$26 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $21 +$25 +117%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $10 +$6 +57%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $6 −$5 -82%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 +$4 +72%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 +$14 +1326%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $2 +$2 +100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $5 +$7 +132%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 24 $5 +$1 +21%
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-A Apr 24 $22 +$9 +43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $35 +$19 +53%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $20 +$11 +53%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $10 $0 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $32 +$14 +43%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $15 +$15 +102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $2 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $2 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 25¢ $2 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $3 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.80 · official $47.80 (match) · 131 history records