Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:57:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
ED 0xed08…ed3b sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$111 (+19%) realized +$112 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$100
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$63
other 38% +$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -16.6% -24.6% 40% 40% -33.7%
≤30d 11 +0.5% -9.0% 45% 45% +4.0%
≤90d 11 +0.5% -9.0% 45% 45% +4.0%
all 11 +0.5% -9.0% 45% 45% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 45% +4.0%
10% -17.7% 45% -6.0%
15% -25.7% 45% -15.0%
20% -33.0% 45% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$41 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$112
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage8d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 +$31 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$23 +76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 +$46 +152%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$43 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $99 +$171 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $51 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $61 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $54 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 20h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 20h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 20h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $51 47h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $41 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $31 3d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $31 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $41 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $271 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $99 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.92 · official $108.92 (match) · 24 history records