Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed0b…6274 sports 27 markets active 3d ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8 (-17%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$13
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$12
other 6% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -84.7% -86.2% 14% 0% -92.7%
≤30d 27 -23.7% -30.9% 41% 37% -27.8%
≤90d 27 -23.7% -30.9% 41% 37% -27.8%
all 27 -23.7% -30.9% 41% 37% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 37% -27.8%
10% -37.6% 37% -34.7%
15% -43.6% 33% -41.0%
20% -49.1% 30% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage42d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $3 +$3 +92%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +104%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $2 +$1 +64%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 04 $2 +$3 +104%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $3 +$1 +35%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1 $0 +45%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Elina Svitolina vs. Marta Kostyuk: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $2 +$2 +126%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $2 +$1 +71%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 -27%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1 +$1 +68%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? Jun 02 $2 +$3 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 51¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 93¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 38¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 21¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 39¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 25¢ $3 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 16¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 51¢ $3 9d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner BUY Liquid 17¢ $1 13d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 14d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 48¢ $1 14d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 60¢ $2 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jakub Mensik 23¢ $1 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 57¢ $3 14d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY GamerLegion 48¢ $2 15d
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $2 16d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 21¢ $1 16d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL B8 99¢ $4 16d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY B8 72¢ $3 16d
Elina Svitolina vs. Marta Kostyuk: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 100¢ $3 16d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL B8 100¢ $3 16d
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 16d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL M80 100¢ $2 16d
Elina Svitolina vs. Marta Kostyuk: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 43¢ $2 16d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 54¢ $1 16d
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Sinners 57¢ $1 16d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 58¢ $1 16d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY B8 57¢ $2 16d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY GamerLegion 68¢ $1 16d
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records