Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:39:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
ED 0xed10…5e7a crypto 129 markets active 3d ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3,693 (-6%) realized −$3,693 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate74%96W / 33L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$507per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$535
14 days−$535
30 days−$535
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$158
sports 28% −$2,741
other 10% −$990
finance 1% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -19.6% -27.2% 50% 50% -15.3%
≤30d 8 -19.6% -27.2% 50% 50% -15.3%
≤90d 9 -10.5% -19.1% 56% 56% -11.7%
all 129 -14.5% -22.7% 74% 22% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 22% -14.8%
10% -30.1% 13% -22.9%
15% -36.8% 5% -30.4%
20% -43.0% 5% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$706) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$331 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,693
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses96 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)129 / 129
History coverage117d
Avg bet$507
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 129 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $905 −$895 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,460 −$1,554 -63%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $1,904 +$555 +29%
Game Handicap: ONIC (-2.5) vs Bigetron by Vitality (+2.5) Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,298 +$707 +54%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,141 +$159 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $546 +$596 +109%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 14 $518 +$320 +62%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group St Mar 08 $942 −$942 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 07 $585 +$358 +61%
Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 07 $298 +$287 +96%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs Mar 01 $1,993 −$1,993 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 27 $930 −$930 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Feb 27 $576 +$54 +9%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 27 $299 +$577 +193%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Feb 27 $416 −$416 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 27 $350 +$65 +19%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 26 $77 −$50 -65%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Feb 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 26 $20 $0 -2%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Feb 26 $335 +$52 +16%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 26 $290 +$72 +25%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 26 $2,451 +$838 +34%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Feb 26 $1,982 +$471 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 26 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 26 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Feb 26 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 25 $769 −$769 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 25 $585 +$184 +31%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Feb 25 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 3 Winner Feb 25 $498 +$114 +23%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Feb 25 $393 +$105 +27%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Feb 25 $294 +$99 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Feb 25 $100 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Feb 25 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 3 Winner Feb 25 $307 +$76 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Feb 25 $306 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Feb 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Feb 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Feb 25 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 21 $890 −$889 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Feb 21 $85 −$85 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Feb 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Feb 21 $981 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Feb 21 $959 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Feb 21 $971 +$10 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $905 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 34¢ $906 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $2,460 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 96¢ $2,459 4d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 74¢ $1,904 4d
Game Handicap: ONIC (-2.5) vs Bigetron by Vitality (+2.5) BUY ONIC 58¢ $101 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,005 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,298 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $1,300 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,141 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,142 5d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $546 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $838 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 35d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group St BUY Tundra Esports 69¢ $942 103d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $942 103d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 62¢ $585 103d
Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage SELL Aurora 100¢ $585 103d
Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Aurora 51¢ $298 103d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Aurora 25¢ $1,993 109d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY Xtreme Gaming 71¢ $630 111d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner SELL Xtreme Gaming 100¢ $630 111d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner BUY Xtreme Gaming 91¢ $576 111d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 BUY Xtreme Gaming 68¢ $300 111d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $876 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 346 history records