Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:42:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
ED 0xed11…c853 crypto 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$223 (-12%) realized −$223 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$107
14 days−$107
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$218
world 32% +$30
tech 2% −$38
sports 1% −$26
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -32.5% -38.9% 0% 0% -45.9%
≤30d 4 -5.3% -14.3% 25% 25% -20.3%
≤90d 7 -22.5% -29.9% 14% 14% -28.1%
all 12 -28.5% -35.3% 25% 17% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 17% -21.7%
10% -41.5% 8% -29.2%
15% -47.2% 8% -36.0%
20% -52.4% 8% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$38 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$223
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage131d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 26 $80 −$10 -13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 22 $186 −$96 -52%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 04 $172 −$18 -10%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Jun 02 $110 +$59 +54%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $46 −$38 -82%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 13 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Apr 13 $650 −$152 -23%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 20 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 18 $8 −$8 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 21 $200 +$30 +15%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 18 $198 −$2 -1%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 18 $197 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 19¢ $47 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $39 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 14¢ $35 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $42 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $37 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $105 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 12¢ $23 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 32¢ $63 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? SELL Yes 62¢ $155 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY Yes 66¢ $172 22d
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? BUY 70k 65¢ $0 32d
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? BUY 70k 65¢ $110 32d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi SELL Yes 14¢ $8 42d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi BUY Yes 77¢ $46 43d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 43d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 49d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? SELL $60k 36¢ $52 73d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? BUY $60k 59¢ $86 79d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? SELL $60k 62¢ $86 80d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? BUY $60k 62¢ $86 96d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? SELL $60k 54¢ $86 98d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? BUY $60k 56¢ $89 98d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY G2 Esports 18¢ $7 100d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY G2 Esports 18¢ $11 100d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? SELL $60k 30¢ $105 101d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY BNK FEARX 38¢ $8 102d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? BUY $60k 47¢ $164 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records