Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:16:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
ED 0xed18…e5f5 other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate14%16W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$6
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$20
politics 17% −$5
economics 6% −$1
world 4% −$1
sports 4% +$54
tech 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +16.2% +5.2% 29% 14% -8.9%
≤30d 19 +5.9% -4.2% 16% 5% -9.3%
≤90d 105 +5.5% -4.6% 15% 10% -9.4%
all 112 +5.1% -4.9% 14% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 10% -9.4%
10% -14.0% 10% -18.1%
15% -22.3% 9% -26.0%
20% -29.9% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×8.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses16 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage93d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $136 $136 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $41 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $5 +$6 +114%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $140 +$1 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $41 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $301 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $45 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 01 $89 $0 +0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $29 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $182 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $218 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $204 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $366 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $216 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $209 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 11 $200 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $435 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $204 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $218 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $429 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 06 $395 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $205 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $411 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $393 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $216 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? May 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $399 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $210 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $421 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $341 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $214 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $417 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $217 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $374 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 41m
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $136 5h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 24h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 46¢ $5 24h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 28h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 2d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $140 3d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 3d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 3d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $27 7d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 9d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $38 13d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $38 13d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $45 15d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $45 15d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $42 16d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $43 17d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 17d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 17d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 18d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 19d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.95 · official $135.95 (match) · 324 history records