Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:35:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed1c…36fa sports 404 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$374 (+5%) realized +$294 · open +$80
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%226W / 175L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$663now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$210
7 days+$527
14 days+$378
30 days+$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$410
other 6% −$57
world 1% −$2
crypto 1% −$47
politics 1% −$3
culture 1% +$20
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% −$2
economics 0% −$5
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +20.2% +8.8% 81% 69% +6.1%
≤30d 210 -2.8% -12.1% 58% 52% -5.0%
≤90d 401 -2.1% -11.4% 56% 49% -6.0%
all 401 -2.1% -11.4% 56% 49% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 49% -6.0%
10% -19.9% 43% -15.0%
15% -27.6% 35% -23.2%
20% -34.7% 25% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$663
Realized+$294
Unrealized+$80
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses226 / 175
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions3
Markets (closed)401 / 404
History coverage61d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 401 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Linx Legacy Esport vs Fortress (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 Playoffs Linx Legacy Esport 88¢ 100¢ $550 $623 +$73 (+13%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 82¢ 100¢ $31 $38 +$7 (+22%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $26 +$5 +18%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $43 +$25 +58%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $51 +$24 +47%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $494 +$4 +1%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $478 +$102 +21%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $461 +$50 +11%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $65 +$14 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $172 +$53 +31%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $196 +$34 +17%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $21 −$17 -80%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $182 +$35 +19%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $113 +$80 +71%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $226 +$131 +58%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $7 −$6 -97%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 14 $7 −$9 -139%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $20 +$3 +15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 +$7 +136%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $49 +$18 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $140 +$12 +9%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $136 +$7 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $108 +$28 +26%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $20 +$9 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$1 -4%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 $0 -4%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -12%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $10 +$9 +91%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $20 +$7 +35%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South A Jun 09 $10 +$5 +48%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 +$3 +29%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 +$3 +31%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $10 $0 +5%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $10 +$5 +53%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Game Handicap: LLL (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) Jun 08 $20 +$9 +46%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $20 +$9 +45%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $10 +$9 +84%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 07 $10 −$9 -84%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 82¢ $32 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 18¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: Linx Legacy Esport vs Fortress (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen BUY Linx Legacy Esport 88¢ $557 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 66¢ $112 3h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Oxuji Esports 22¢ $4 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team $4 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 97¢ $484 6h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 58¢ $15 6h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports 49¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 67¢ $51 7h
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY Phantom 62¢ $43 7h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Ground Zero 12¢ $10 10h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 80¢ $305 10h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 61¢ $123 10h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 62¢ $51 11h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 80¢ $9 31h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 90¢ $452 31h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 81¢ $20 3d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 81¢ $65 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 26¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 75¢ $65 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 75¢ $60 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 75¢ $36 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY Team Nemesis 85¢ $196 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series SELL G2 Ares $4 3d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY G2 Ares 19¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $662.54 · official $662.54 (match) · 1213 history records