Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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ED 0xed1d…797f crypto 500 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$138 (-3%) realized −$138 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate63%357W / 208L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day83.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$386
7 days−$374
14 days−$373
30 days−$554
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$227
sports 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -61.7% -65.3% 29% 16% -54.0%
≤30d 443 -18.2% -26.0% 63% 35% -19.4%
≤90d 565 -16.3% -24.2% 63% 37% -18.7%
all 565 -16.3% -24.2% 63% 37% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 37% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -31.5% 16% -26.5%
15% -38.1% 9% -33.6%
20% -44.2% 4% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses357 / 208
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)565 / 500
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day83.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 565 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 138 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$6 -214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$3 -272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Veronika P Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$7 -139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$14 -604%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$6 -211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$3 -190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$14 -176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$3 -229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$15 -591%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$11 -305%
Barcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils Jun 16 $1 −$3 -540%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$9 -373%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$8 -875%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$4 -432%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$10 -121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$6 -173%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.01 · official $3.01 (match) · 3500 history records