Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
ED 0xed20…ec29 world 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$901 (+62%) realized +$909 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% +$911
sports 7% +$298
crypto 4% −$39
other 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +27.7% +15.6% 40% 40% +80.7%
≤30d 5 +27.7% +15.6% 40% 40% +80.7%
≤90d 5 +27.7% +15.6% 40% 40% +80.7%
all 5 +27.7% +15.6% 40% 40% +80.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.6% 40% +80.7%
10% +4.5% 40% +63.4%
15% -5.6% 40% +47.6%
20% -14.9% 40% +33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$609 vs −$20 · ×30.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×20.55 per $1 lost it wins $20.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized+$909
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 54¢ 52¢ $300 $292 −$8 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$12 -46%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $102 +$298 +291%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $986 +$920 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $300 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 25¢ $102 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1,906 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $488 32h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $498 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.67 · official $291.67 (match) · 13 history records