Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:26:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
ED 0xed24…9e2b other 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$29 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%60W / 2L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$6
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% +$16
other 33% +$16
tech 15% +$40
politics 13% −$59
world 3% +$7
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 20 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 48 +0.4% -9.1% 96% 0% -9.7%
all 62 +0.6% -9.0% 97% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$49 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$314
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses60 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)62 / 68
History coverage134d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $90 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $120? Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of th Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $50? Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $40? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 15 above $1.50? Jun 18 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.50 on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.60 on June 12? Jun 12 $210 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $150 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $148 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on June 6? Jun 06 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 5? Jun 05 $116 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $150 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $150 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $102 +$4 +4%
Will Ethena reach $0.20 in May? Jun 01 $102 +$3 +3%
Will Ethena reach $0.24 in May? Jun 01 $106 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets in May 2026? May 26 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.90 on May 23? May 23 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $203 +$3 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, May 17 $217 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, May 17 $84 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $9.00-$10 on the final day of trading of May 15 $156 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading May 15 $142 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.50 Week of May 4 May 08 $284 +$21 +7%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5 May 03 $321 −$68 -21%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May May 01 $338 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 01 $827 +$3 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $40 April 13-19? Apr 20 $210 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 April 13-19? Apr 20 $515 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 14 to Apr Apr 19 $96 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April Apr 18 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 10 to Apr Apr 18 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 10 to April Apr 18 $428 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 10 to Apr Apr 17 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $951 −$31 -3%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 6-12? Apr 13 $948 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 6 above $145? Apr 11 $452 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading Apr 11 $465 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on April 7? Apr 08 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on April 7? Apr 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 7? Apr 08 $759 +$1 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 05 $94 +$5 +5%
US strike on Colombia by March 31? Apr 05 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? Apr 05 $542 +$7 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 21 $264 +$1 +0%
Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 07 $654 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $79 2h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $2.00-$3.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 99¢ $8 2h
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $90 39h
Will RadarScope be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $106 39h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 99¢ $20 39h
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $30-$40 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 99¢ $99 39h
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $120? BUY No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $50? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 7d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $40? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 7d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 15 above $1.50? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 10d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.50 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $70 10d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.60 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $210 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $154 10d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $137 11d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 11d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $118 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $150 14d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $173 17d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $116 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $153 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $150 19d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $150 19d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $106 19d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $102 19d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 100¢ $100 25d
Will Ethena reach $0.24 in May? BUY No 100¢ $106 25d
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $313.95 · official $313.95 (match) · 191 history records