Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:46:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
ED 0xed2a…093f crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$133 (+0%) realized +$127 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate89%47W / 6L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$561per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$664now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% +$133
other 21% −$176
finance 13% +$108
tech 8% $0
economics 8% +$36
world 3% +$7
sports 2% +$22
politics 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 3 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 13 +0.7% -8.8% 92% 0% -9.2%
all 53 -1.7% -11.1% 89% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 4% -9.2%
10% -19.6% 2% -17.9%
15% -27.3% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$1,048) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$54 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$664
Realized+$127
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses47 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage250d
Avg bet$561
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 97¢ $398 $398 −$1 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in June? No 95¢ 97¢ $247 $253 +$6 (+2%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 22 $394 +$4 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 04 $987 +$17 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 28 $538 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 25 $1,365 +$2 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 18 $1,347 +$18 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? May 04 $1,209 −$44 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 04 $181 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 17 $181 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 06 $1,217 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of March? Mar 30 $186 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 30 $422 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 29 $335 +$24 +7%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of March? Mar 29 $416 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 25 $303 +$14 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 25 $650 +$57 +9%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 10 $461 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Mar 08 $648 +$2 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $497 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 05 $150 +$1 +0%
Hornets vs. Celtics Mar 05 $480 +$17 +4%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 05 $1,065 +$26 +2%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs QUAZAR (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qua Mar 05 $169 +$5 +3%
Will Solana reach $130 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $230 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in February? Mar 02 $833 +$2 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 25 $1,048 +$15 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Feb 21 $160 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Feb 20 $1,043 +$5 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 9-15? Feb 13 $151 +$8 +6%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 09 $1,217 −$24 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 05 $1,176 +$42 +4%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $96 −$96 -100%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Jan 30 $145 −$145 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 27 $1,166 +$11 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 14 $1,153 +$13 +1%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Dec 31 $144 +$1 +1%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? Dec 29 $106 −$16 -15%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 28 $91 +$6 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $82 +$18 +22%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 24 $35 +$9 +25%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Dec 24 $419 +$30 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $775 +$26 +3%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 5? Dec 03 $103 +$4 +4%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of November? Nov 28 $99 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 25 $190 +$5 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 25 $290 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 25 $98 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 20 $99 $0 -0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Nov 08 $2,566 +$28 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on November 6? Nov 06 $1,269 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,600 and $3,700 on November 6? Nov 06 $1,271 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY No 98¢ $399 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $399 3d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June? BUY No 96¢ $13 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $729 21d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in June? BUY No 95¢ $247 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $394 25d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $39 26d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $65 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? SELL No 100¢ $539 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $538 30d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $829 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1,367 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1,365 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1,365 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 98¢ $1,347 52d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $1,165 52d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $112 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $59 66d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $171 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $181 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $181 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $181 80d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $1,038 80d
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $1,217 86d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $187 87d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $424 87d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 97¢ $190 88d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $416 89d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $186 91d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $422 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $664.01 · official $664.42 (match) · 167 history records