Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:21:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
ED 0xed2b…3aba sports 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 247d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6,826 (+12%) realized +$6,287 · open +$159
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$2,838per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$287est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$2,140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$515
7 days−$615
14 days−$615
30 days−$1,862
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$213
sports 17% +$6,232
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 5 +120.1% +99.2% 40% 40% +78.1%
all 16 +25.5% +13.6% 38% 38% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.6% 38% +0.9%
10% ← realistic here +2.7% 38% -8.7%
15% -7.2% 31% -17.5%
20% -16.3% 19% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +97% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,508 vs −$1,476 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$2,140
Realized+$6,287
Unrealized+$159
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$287
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage247d
Avg bet$2,838
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $840 $820 −$20 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ 22¢ $440 $450 +$10 (+2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 13¢ 22¢ $261 $440 +$179 (+68%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 22¢ 22¢ $440 $430 −$10 (-2%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 47¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano Carano 18¢ 0¢ $1,247 $0 −$1,247 (-100%)
Seahawks vs. Patriots Patriots 1¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Kyle Daukaus 21¢ 0¢ $515 $0 −$515 (-100%)
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Yes 86¢ 0¢ $5,190 $0 −$5,190 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $521 −$515 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $182 −$100 -55%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 17 $1,271 −$1,247 -98%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car May 10 $24 +$171 +711%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $3,808 +$7,207 +189%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Feb 05 $5,190 −$5,190 -100%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $1,300 +$573 +44%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? Nov 21 $15,986 +$7,403 +46%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Nov 21 $16,441 +$5,629 +34%
Discord IPO in 2025? Nov 05 $100 −$59 -59%
Tech Release Parlay Nov 05 $100 −$8 -8%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Nov 04 $9,180 −$7,594 -83%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 04 $100 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition? Nov 03 $120 −$32 -27%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Nov 01 $108 +$64 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 8¢ $2 13m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 8¢ $6 13m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 8¢ $1 13m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 7¢ $64 13m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler 30¢ $44 16m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler 30¢ $35 16m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler 30¢ $2 16m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler 30¢ $1 17m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler 30¢ $138 17m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler 30¢ $81 17m
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 15¢ $25 53m
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 15¢ $6 53m
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 15¢ $12 53m
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 15¢ $9 53m
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 15¢ $23 53m
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 19¢ $45 55m
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 19¢ $95 55m
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 19¢ $2 55m
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 19¢ $14 55m
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 19¢ $7 55m
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 19¢ $9 55m
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 19¢ $15 55m
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 19¢ $2 55m
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $256 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 19¢ $97 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler 18¢ $88 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $236 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $6 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $47 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $45 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,140.00 · official $2,140.00 (match) · 214 history records