Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:15:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
ED 0xed2b…92ab sports 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 402d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$361 (-10%) realized −$337 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate68%81W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$71
14 days+$56
30 days−$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$269
crypto 34% −$96
other 14% −$40
world 4% +$12
finance 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +12.4% +1.7% 81% 69% -1.3%
≤30d 85 -18.9% -26.6% 61% 51% -21.5%
≤90d 113 -10.9% -19.4% 67% 50% -21.6%
all 120 -10.7% -19.2% 68% 52% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 52% -19.2%
10% -26.9% 24% -26.9%
15% -34.0% 6% -34.0%
20% -40.5% 6% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$24 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

402d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$337
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses81 / 39
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage402d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C FOKUS 81¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 23 $24 +$6 +25%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $25 +$5 +20%
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 23 $27 +$3 +10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $1 $0 +16%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $24 +$6 +25%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $26 +$4 +14%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $27 +$3 +11%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 +$5 +18%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $27 +$3 +11%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $28 +$2 +9%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 +$6 +23%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $25 +$5 +19%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $24 +$6 +23%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $28 +$2 +9%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $24 +$6 +23%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $28 +$2 +9%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$5 +22%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $24 +$6 +25%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 +$4 +17%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $24 +$6 +25%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 +$37 +291%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $24 +$6 +25%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $28 +$22 +79%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $24 +$6 +28%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $36 −$6 -16%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 +$4 +15%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $24 +$6 +25%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $24 +$6 +25%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $25 +$5 +20%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $24 +$6 +25%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $24 +$6 +25%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 16 $29 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 +$4 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $24 +$6 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $38 +$39 +103%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $24 +$6 +25%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $24 +$6 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage SELL Misa Esports 100¢ $30 1h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY FOKUS 81¢ $24 1h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY FOKUS 81¢ $0 1h
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY FOKUS 81¢ $0 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 80¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 80¢ $14 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 80¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY OG 83¢ $23 10h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY OG 83¢ $1 10h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL Crest Gaming Zst 100¢ $30 10h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Crest Gaming Zst 91¢ $7 10h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Crest Gaming Zst 91¢ $12 10h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Crest Gaming Zst 91¢ $8 10h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 80¢ $20 24h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 80¢ $4 24h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY No 85¢ $26 26h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 90¢ $27 28h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 88¢ $22 30h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 88¢ $4 31h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $25 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $27 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $28 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 86¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P SELL ex-RUBY 100¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY ex-RUBY 84¢ $25 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $24 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $30 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $30 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 81¢ $24 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 286 history records