Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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ED 0xed2c…9597 crypto 427 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$49,709 (-115%) realized −$49,670 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate83%350W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day40.9pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,646now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 73d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$360
sports 13% +$932
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +21.7% +10.1% 67% 67% +31.2%
≤30d 6 +21.7% +10.1% 67% 67% +31.2%
≤90d 423 -3.2% -12.4% 83% 41% -8.1%
all 423 -3.2% -12.4% 83% 41% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 41% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 26% -16.9%
15% -28.4% 11% -25.0%
20% -35.5% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$57 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$1,646
Realized−$49,670
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses350 / 73
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions4
Markets (closed)423 / 427
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$101
Trades / day40.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 423 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner Nightblood Gaming 59¢ 100¢ $347 $593 +$246 (+71%)
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner QoR 62¢ 38¢ $907 $566 −$341 (-38%)
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winner Azure Dragon Gaming 43¢ 48¢ $292 $324 +$32 (+11%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 85¢ 100¢ $138 $163 +$25 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $604 +$71 +12%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,194 +$577 +48%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $446 +$220 +49%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $32 −$32 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $271 +$191 +70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $869 −$58 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 16 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 16 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 16 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 16 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 16 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 16 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 16 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 16 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 15 $1 +$1 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner BUY QoR 40¢ $67 4m
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winne BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 45¢ $228 14m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner BUY QoR 43¢ $27 18m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner BUY QoR 56¢ $102 21m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner BUY QoR 57¢ $50 25m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner BUY QoR 58¢ $15 25m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner BUY QoR 59¢ $6 25m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner BUY QoR 65¢ $270 28m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner BUY QoR 71¢ $30 29m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner BUY QoR 71¢ $53 29m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner BUY QoR 71¢ $57 29m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner BUY QoR 73¢ $183 30m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner BUY QoR 74¢ $15 32m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner BUY QoR 74¢ $10 32m
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winne BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 39¢ $12 39m
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winne BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 37¢ $43 39m
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winne BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 36¢ $7 40m
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winne BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 36¢ $6 40m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner BUY QoR 65¢ $33 43m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner BUY Nightblood Gaming 89¢ $9 52m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner BUY Nightblood Gaming 88¢ $26 53m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner BUY Nightblood Gaming 87¢ $13 53m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner BUY Nightblood Gaming 64¢ $10 55m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner BUY Nightblood Gaming 61¢ $4 56m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner BUY Nightblood Gaming 68¢ $123 57m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner BUY Nightblood Gaming 53¢ $11 1h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner BUY Nightblood Gaming 50¢ $14 1h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner BUY Nightblood Gaming 50¢ $2 1h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner BUY Nightblood Gaming 50¢ $56 1h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner BUY Nightblood Gaming 48¢ $31 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,645.67 · official $1,645.67 (match) · 3500 history records