Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:19:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed2d…2ad6 crypto 203 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (231 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,886 (-17%) realized −$1,886 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%137W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day230.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$415
7 days−$415
14 days−$589
30 days−$772
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$772
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (231 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -8.0% -16.8% 60% 40% -20.5%
≤30d 203 +5.1% -4.9% 67% 50% -15.2%
≤90d 203 +5.1% -4.9% 67% 50% -15.2%
all 203 +5.1% -4.9% 67% 50% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover230.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 50% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 31% -23.3%
15% -22.3% 23% -30.7%
20% -29.9% 17% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
16.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$40 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,886
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses137 / 66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)203 / 203
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$53
Trades / day230.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 203 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $63 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $58 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $192 −$101 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $55 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $264 −$264 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $47 −$40 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $44 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $151 −$104 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$15 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $181 −$10 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $98 +$74 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $67 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $193 +$28 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$14 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $237 +$93 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $144 +$123 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $71 −$69 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$42 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $199 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $63 +$52 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$26 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $119 −$68 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$6 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$7 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$6 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $8 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records